Author: Admin

By any historical intuition, gold should be flying. The United States and Iran spent the weekend of 18–19 July exchanging the heaviest strikes of a war now in its sixth month. Central banks are buying gold at a near-record pace, and, on World Gold Council figures, gold has by some measures overtaken US Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset. Yet the metal just posted its biggest weekly loss since June and spent the loudest weekend of the war going nowhere, defending US$4,000 after a fall of roughly 30 per cent from January’s record just short of US$5,600. Gold hit…

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BNY strategists John Velis and David Tam expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the upcoming July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, while stressing it is a close call. They highlight market pricing for at least one hike by September and see future moves driven by incoming US inflation data and Middle East-related energy shocks.FOMC hold seen but risks remain”We don’t expect a change to the federal funds rate this week, even though we acknowledge it’s finely balanced. If we’re right, hawkish dissents are likely; if the FOMC does tighten, expect a dissent…

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China’s gold market has undergone a quiet but important structural change during 2026. Beginning in June, several major state-linked Chinese commercial banks announced that they would terminate intermediary services for retail customers trading certain Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)-linked precious metals contracts. From 24 July, banks including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), Postal Savings Bank of China, Ping An Bank and China Guangfa Bank ceased facilitating these products for individual investors. The announcements have prompted speculation that Beijing is attempting to suppress gold prices, weaken Western gold price discovery, or channel investors towards Hong Kong’s developing gold market. The…

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  Why Markets Flow Like a River   Streams to Money Have you ever stood beside a river and simply watched the water? At first glance, it seems almost effortless. The current glides around rocks, bends around fallen trees, squeezes through narrow channels, and slows as it reaches deeper pools. It never argues with the landscape. It never tries to climb uphill. Instead, it quietly follows the easiest route available. One day it occurred to me that financial markets behave in much the same way. Whether you trade stocks, futures, commodities, bonds, cryptocurrencies, or forex, markets are constantly searching for…

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The week in one sentence. Speculators rebuilt their bearish conviction in JPY and EUR, kept selling AUD, and continued covering GBP, while WTI delivered the cleanest positive turn as both positioning and price moved sharply higher.A more defensive resetThe foreign-exchange complex turned more defensive. JPY registered the largest weekly deterioration, with net positioning falling by 29,462 contracts to a 152,125-contract short. That leaves the market near the 3rd historical percentile. The 0.57% rise in USD/JPY – a weaker Yen – confirmed the renewed selling and makes JPY the clearest bearish FX signal of the week.EUR followed closely. Speculators cut net…

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FOMC CHINA POLITBURO MEETING (TBC): China’s mid-year Politburo meeting is expected to take place next week, in line with its traditional late-July schedule, although the exact timing is not announced in advance. The meeting will review first-half economic performance and is expected to set the policy direction for the remainder of the year. Markets will watch for signals on whether Beijing will introduce additional fiscal support following the moderation in economic growth, as well as guidance on balancing support for domestic demand with its continued focus on advanced manufacturing and high-tech industries. Attention will also centre on any references to the…

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